餐饮产业整体的快速增长是扩大内需的重要动力，根据国家统计局发布的数据，2019年我国社会消费品零售总额为41.2万亿元，其中餐饮业为4.67万亿元，占社会消费品零售总额的比重约为11.3%。自2015年以来，餐饮行业占比持续增加。
I. Status and growth of the catering industry in the national economy The rapid growth of the catering industry as a whole is an important driving force for China to expand domestic demand. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China in 2019 was 41.2 trillion, of which the total catering industry was 4.67 trillion, accounting for about 11.3% of total social retail sales. Since 2015, the catering industry has continued to increase its share of zero
성장 추세 측면에서, 2019년 전국 사회 소비재의 소매 판매는 연율 8.0% 증가했으며, 식당 산업은 연율 9.4% 증가했습니다. 2019년, 소비가 GDP 성장에 기여한 비율은 57.8%였으며, GDP를 약 3.5퍼센트 포인트 이상 끌어올렸고, 6년 연속으로 대외 경제 성장의 주요 동력이 되었습니다. 식당 산업은 사회 소비 총액의 약 11.3%를 차지하며, GDP 성장을 약 0.4퍼센트 포인트 이상 끌어올렸습니다.
중국의 식음료 산업은 소규모와 중소기업이 주도되며, 체인화 정도가 낮고 시장 집중도가 높지 않습니다. 중국 요리 협회에 따르면, 2018년 전국에는 800만 명 이상의 식음료 사업자가 있었습니다. 2019년 초 세기업 연구소의 조사 데이터에 따르면, 식음료 사업자의 86.5%는 개인점이었으며, 82.5%는 운영 면적이 100제곱미터 미만이었고, 95.9%는 10명 미만의 직원을 가졌습니다. 소규모 식당의 많은 수가 있기 때문에 시장 집중도가 높지 않고 산업 내 규모 효과가 뚜렷하지 않습니다. 산업 내 경쟁이 점점 심해짐에 따라, 식음료 산업의 소규모 기업들은 단일점에서 고객 확보 능력이 부족, 온라인 플랫폼 이용률이 낮고, 일반적으로 운영 자금이 긴박한 문제 등을 겪게 될 것입니다.
新冠状病毒肺炎对餐饮行业的影响新冠状病毒肺炎疫情导致春节期间及2月份餐饮行业损失90%左右,如果没有新冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响,2020年春节黄金周餐饮收入约为1240亿元,实际可能下降约90%,2月份餐饮收入也预计同比下降90%,3月份后逐步恢复,全年餐饮收入预计为3.97万亿元,较2019年下降约15%。
식당 회사들은 지속적인 비용 압박에 직면하고 있습니다. 전염병의 사안으로, 한편으로는 대부분의 식음료 산업이 문을 닫게 되었지만, 다른 한편으로는 여전히 임대료, 노동 비용, 그리고 고정 자산의 감가상각에 직면해야 합니다. 시장 조사 데이터와 주요 식당 회사의 재무 데이터에 따르면, 원자재, 노동, 임대비로 구성된 세 가지 비용의 합은 총 비용의 약 70%를 차지합니다(그림 5). 둘째, 전염병 예방 및 통제를 위한 재료 구매 비용이 상당 부상했습니다. 전염병의 영향으로 식음료 산업은 추가적인 마스크, 소독 물, 온도 측정 장비 등을 구매하여 전염병 예방 및 통제의 안전 요구 사항을 충족시키게 되었으며, 이는 식당 기업의 지출을 크게 증가시켰습니다.
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
