De snelle groei van de cateringindustrie als geheel is een belangrijke dynamische kracht voor China om内需 te vergroten. Volgens gegevens releaseerd door het Nationaal Bureau van Statistiek was de totale detailhandelssales van sociale consumenten in China in 2019 41,2 triljoen, waarvan de totale cateringindustrie 4,67 triljoen was, wat ongeveer 11,3% van de totale detailhandelssales van sociale consumenten represents. Sinds 2015 is de proportion van de cateringindustrie continu toegewerkt aan een nul.
I. Status en groei van de cateringindustrie in de nationale economie De snelle groei van de cateringindustrie als geheel is een belangrijke drijfveer voor China om de binnenlandse vraag uit te breiden. Volgens gegevens die zijn vrijgegeven door het Nationale Bureau van Statistiek, was de totale detailverkopen van sociale consumentenware in China in 2019 41,2 biljoen, waarvan de totale cateringindustrie 4,67 biljoen bedroeg, wat ongeveer 11,3% van de totale sociale detailverkopen vertegenwoordigt. Sinds 2015 heeft de cateringindustrie voortdurend zijn aandeel in de nul verhoogd
In termen van groeimomentum, stijging van de detailhandel in sociale consumentenproducten over het land in 2019 was 8,0% op jaar basis, en de horeca-industrie nam 9,4% op jaar basis toe. In 2019 had de inzet van consumenten in de GDP-groei een waarde van 57,8%, wat de GDP verder ging met ongeveer 3,5 percentage points, en bleef het de enige motor van macro-economische groei voor zes opeenvolgende jaren. De horeca-industrie omvat ongeveer 11,3% van de totale detailhandel in sociale retail, en drive de GDP-groei ongeveer 0,4 percentage points
China's catering industry is dominated by small and medium-sized businesses, with a low degree of chaining and market concentration. According to the China Culinary Association, there were more than 8 million catering merchants across the country in 2018. According to the survey data of the Meituan Research Institute in the first quarter of 2019, 86.5% of the catering merchants were individual stores, 82.5% of the catering merchants had an operating area of less than 100 square meters, and 95.9% of the catering merchants had less than 10 employees. As a result of the large number of small and medium-sized restaurants, the market concentration is not high and the scale effect in the industry is not obvious. With increasing competition in the industry, small and medium-sized enterprises in the catering industry will expose problems such as insufficient customer acquisition capabilities in single stores, low utilization of online platforms, and generally tight operating funds.
新冠状病毒肺炎对餐饮行业的影响新冠状病毒肺炎疫情导致春节期间和2月份餐饮行业损失约90%,如果没有新冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响,2020年春节黄金周餐饮收入约为1240亿元,但实际可能减少约90%,2月份餐饮收入也预计同比下降90%,3月后逐步好转,全年餐饮收入预计为3.97万亿元,较2019年下降约15%。
餐饮企业面临持续的成本压力。在疫情面前,一方面大部分餐饮企业被迫停业,另一方面仍需支付房租、人工成本,同时还要面对固定资产折旧等支出,根据市场调研数据和上市餐饮企业的财务数据,原材料、人工、租金三项成本合计约占总成本的70%(图5),其次防疫物资采购成本大幅上升,受疫情影响,餐饮行业将额外购买口罩、消毒液、测温仪等防疫物资,以满足防疫安全要求,给餐饮企业带来较大的支出压力。
Catering companies are facing huge funding problems. Under the dual impact of increasing spending and reducing revenue, although catering companies have turned to online business and increased sales through take-out platforms or private domain traffic channels to solve the business dilemma brought by the closure, some small and medium catering companies will find it difficult to continue due to cash flow Forced to close or close. Leading companies in the industry are also facing greater cash flow pressures. Under the circumstances of obtaining bank credit or external capital injection, they may still be forced to take measures such as salary reductions, store closures, and layoffs. The catering industry supply chain has been hit. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the catering industry is a food supplier, the midstream is a supply chain enterprise (self-built supply chain system or by means of a platform-based supply chain enterprise), and the downstream is a store of various catering enterprises. Due to the current delay in resuming work in the upper and middle reaches, the production capacity of related companies after the Spring Festival has not been fully restored, and the farmer's market channels have not been fully connected. Feed transportation, food production and product transportation have been affected to varying degrees. The upstream and downstream supply chains are blocked, the consumer demand is reduced, and the industry is delayed to resume work, which means that the catering industry supply chain has been hit. Three trends for the future development of the catering industry 1. The shift from offline dining to online promotes the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. The new crown pneumonia epidemic caused great losses to the catering industry at the end of January and February. Although catering is an important service consumption mode in the long-term trend, eating out will have a weak growth in the short to medium term. After the epidemic, the restaurant industry will be reshuffled, and the industry concentration will increase. At the same time, the market for online food ordering will see explosive growth In terms of takeaway food, in addition to manufactured products, the demand for semi-manufactured products will also increase, driving the rapid and diversified development of the takeaway industry. 2. The proportion of unmanned catering services will further increase. In view of the increase in the risk of new coronary pneumonia due to human contact, some unmanned and non-contact catering services will be accelerated, including the unmanned (no waiter) restaurant concept: customers enter the restaurant, scan the order with their mobile phones to pay for meals, After finishing the catering, the robot will deliver the meal. The customer does not contact the waiter during the whole process. 3． Meals are reduced in density, higher requirements are placed on venues, sanitation and ventilation systems, and catering costs increase. Considering that the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreading in confined spaces is greater, the catering business of catering companies will face higher requirements, including lowering customer density, upgrading sanitation and disinfection, and strengthening ventilation measures. These will increase the cost of catering operations to a certain extent. For those catering companies that have made adaptive adjustments in advance, the catering market will be able to obtain relatively obvious competitive advantages after the epidemic has subsided. 4． Restrictions on wild food products have increased, and the standardization and supervision of the food industry will be significantly strengthened. Due to the large variety of wildlife in China, many wild animals were not included before the "National People's Congress Standing Committee's Decision on the Comprehensive Ban on Illegal Wildlife Trade, Elimination of Wild Animal Habits, and Effective Protection of People's Health and Safety" The scope of management is a major difficulty in law enforcement. With the release of the "Decision", various departments will adjust and improve the relevant catalogues and supporting regulations to further clarify the scope of fasting. At the same time, law enforcement agencies will carry out special crackdown actions, resolutely ban illegal wildlife markets, and effectively increase crackdown on wildlife-related crimes. Under the guidance and supervision of the government, the standardization of the food industry will further increase.
